[Week 45 - 2023] Trades Recap and Trade Setups

Hey Traders,

The huge miss in non-farm payroll numbers shifted the market sentiment where they think that the FEDs may begin cutting rates soon before the economy sink to recession. Sentiment changed quick this week as the stock indexes such as the NASDAQ and S&P500 closed the week with a 5 days upside streak. Be cautious of this sharp upside momentum as the stock market tends to move slowly in a bull market.

This week we have two scheduled speech lined up, Bailey and Powell. Keep a lookout.

Upcoming Economic Release:

S&P500 Futures

Upon reaching the key support region which we identified, we identified that the trend is extended and due for a consolidation and correction where last week, the S&P500 experienced a sharp correction to key resistance. The index experienced a 5 day upside streak and is now extended to the upside and is due for a consolidation or correction in the near term. Trading above the 4375 region will tilt the index back to bullish level.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The United States Dollar Index experienced a sharp decline and extended past the support level at 105.425. We have been putting out that the Dollar is slightly extended and right now the decline looks healthy. The Dollar look to trade towards the 104.34 key support region and unless this key region is broken out of, bullish trend remains intact.

Spot Gold

Gold upside momentum slowed but is still extended. The 4 hour - 50 period exponential moving average caught up with price where it found support. Short to mid term remains bullish and will only turn back to neutral when the 1960 support region is broken out of and above the descending trend line.

Trade Recap

Soybean Futures - Front Month (Analysis 39 - 1)

Recap (Week 44 - Last Week) Take Profit - 1

High risk long at market reopening position finally reached Take Profit - 1 level where we announced to close / partial / risk free.
 

Soybean Meal Futures - Front Month (Analysis 44 - 1)

Recap (Week 44 - Last Week) Take Profit - 1

Long position reached Take Profit - 1 level where we announced to close / partial / risk free.

 Trade Analysis / Setups

Cotton #2 Futures - Front Month (Analysis 45-1)

Analysis: Price has begun consolidating after the impulse move. Opportunity to enter a position can be identified when price has broken and retest out of the range.

Long opportunity: Break and retest at 80.81 resistance region towards 82.73 as Take Profit - 1 level.

Short opportunity: Break and retest at 79.31 support region towards 77.54 as Take Profit - 1 level.

NZD/CHF (Analysis 45-2)

Analysis: Price is now extended and we will begin shorting with a smaller position size. It is possible that price will continue its upside momentum thus the smaller position size for the initial trade recommendation.

Short opportunity: Short at market reopening towards 0.53431 as Take Profit - 1 level.

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