Updated: Mar 27
Just last week we warned about the potential correction of the stock indices as we displayed the high P/E ratio of the top 10 members in the S&P500 index. The trading week ended off with stocks getting hammered, closing off at the 200-days moving average and the crypto market getting slashed by half.
For all of you who have been following me, you would have realized that I am long commodities since last year. Inflation is real and it is key topics right now along with interest rate. Pay special attention to any news related to these.
Upcoming Economic Release:
Dollar Index (DXY)
We talked about the textbook buying potential last week for the dollar. The dollar recovered some of the loss it suffered the previous week and is now trading in the small range between 95.5 and 95.8. A breakout confirmation will likely confirm the next short term direction but my bias is towards the upside with the increased potential of rate hike to reduce the money supply circulating in the economy.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold ended the week in the green due to the likelihood of shift from risk on assets to safe haven like gold. However, the increase strength in the dollar may limit the rise of gold or even potentially dragging the yellow metal down.
Despite the uproar, the correction right now seem healthy from the months of gains. The 4280 level is the key support zone that I am looking at to potentially add positions into.
As I am typing this post, bitcoin is now trading at around 50% of its high. Support level is at 30,000 which I will look to get into. Do note the historical crash of crypto is around 80%, and as of now I would not think that Bitcoin will fall below 13,600. Any price level around or below 30,000 is a good chance to get into.
AUD/JPY (Analysis 3-2)
Recap (Week 03 - Last Week) Stopped
Long position got stopped out.
Corn - Front Month (Analysis 3-3)
Recap (Week 03 - Last Week) Take Profit - 2
Long position reached Take Profit - 2 level where we announced to close / partial.
Sugar #11 - Front Month (Analysis 3-4)
Recap (Week 03 - Last Week) Take Profit - 1
Long position reached Take Profit - 1 level where we announced to close / partial / risk free.
Trade Analysis / Setups
USD/CAD (Analysis 4-1)
Long opportunity: Retest / Reversal confirmation (to be above trendline) at 1.25600 region towards 1.26230 as Take Profit - 1 level.
NZD/CAD (Analysis 4-2)
Long opportunity: Retest / Reversal confirmation at 0.84443 region towards 0.84702 as Take Profit - 1 level.
Short opportunity: Break and retest confirmation at 0.84371 region towards 0.84133 as Take Profit - 1 level.
Cotton #2 Futures - Front month (Analysis 4-3)
Long opportunity: Reversal confirmation at 119.18 region towards 121.55 as Take Profit - 1 level.
Cheers to all our member who managed to pack some profits this trading week.
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Stay safe out there and safe trading!