Last week, there is a level of divergence in the market as even though there was an increase in both yield and oil prices, it was impressive that equities index closed higher. The Dollar initially slipped upon the release of the job reports but all was recovered shortly after. Perhaps, the market will decide on which side they will lean towards next week. Risk on or off?
Upcoming Economic Release:
The 4170 region proved to be a strong short term support as the S&P500 index reverses again and trades above the 4485, bringing equities back into a more bullish view. As the market is heavily pricing towards a soft landing, any indication from economic release that states otherwise can heavily shift the market sentiment towards risk on assets. Short position should only be considered if 4170 is broken out of.
Dollar Index (DXY)
The United States Dollar Index fell back to the support region at 102.875 and ended the week back at the recent high region. Only if the 102.875 support region is breached that we believe that the Dollar will have a more bearish outlook, otherwise, we believe there is more upside movement for the Dollar.
Gold trades back to within the range between 1938 and 1960. Although the bullish run may possibly continue, we believe there is a higher change that price will begin to consolidate or retrace before providing us with the next near term price movement. The recent strength in the Dollar has no impacted the price of Gold and if the strength persist, the Dollar may trade towards the 1912 region.
Dollar Index - Front Month (Exclusive Trade and Analysis 35-3)
Recap (Week 35 - Last Week) Analysis 35-3 at Take Profit - 2 & Exclusive Trade at Take Profit - 1
Both short at market positions reached Take Profit level (Analysis 35-3 reached Take Profit - 2 level and Exclusive Trade reached Take Profit - 1 level) where we announced to close the trade fully.
Trade Analysis / Setups
WTI - Front Month (Analysis 36-1)
Analysis: Price has resumed its upside momentum, trading above the previous medium term resistance and is now considered extended. We see opportunity to short for a quick retracement trade but because price only extended (not overextended), a smaller position size is adequate.
Short opportunity: Short at market reopening as High Risk trade towards 84.60 as Take Profit - 1 level.
2023 Market Order Signal Accuracy
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