Updated: Mar 23
Earlier on the week, Powell hawkish tone sent the market into risk off mood. Accompanied with the risk of a banking crisis later on the week, the market went off to full panic mode, lowering confidence of the US economy, sending the Dollar and US equities deep into the red while risk off asset such as Gold got a boost.
In our opinion, we believe that the government will come into the rescue (like always), and thus will provide liquidity (money) to these institutions. These is contrary to the FEDs prior objective of tightening the economy (lower interest rate), and thus we can see a shift in risk off to risk on move once the US government has decided on their plan.
Upcoming Economic Release:
As mentioned in our previous post, the price at 4050 region was at a mildly extended level and that price would fall back to within the range. Price fell back last week and even reached the key support level at 3915 region. If price were to have a breakout confirmation of the key support region at 3915, the equities index can extend its decline towards the next support region at 3750. However, if price were to extend above 3960, price can potentially move back towards the 4180 resistance region.
Dollar Index (DXY)
Although the United States Dollar Index reached higher earlier on the week, price fell back to consolidation zone, at the 103.65 support region. Re-emphasis on that a breakout confirmation of the 103.65 support could indicate a further movement towards the 102.75 support region.
Gold formed a double bottom at 1815 support region with a neckline at 1850 region. The first level of support that price may potentially retrace to before moving higher would be at the neckline level at 1850 region, while the second level of support that price may potentially retrace to before moving higher would be at the potential shoulder level at 1850 region. However if price were to break below the 1815 support region, price can extend towards the 1790 support region.
USD/JPY (Analysis 4-1)
Recap (Week 10 - Last Week) Take Profit - 2
Long position reached Take Profit - 2 level where we announced to close / partial.
Trade Analysis / Setups
Soybean Oil - Active Futures (Analysis 11-1)
Analysis: Soybean Oil is mildly overextended. We believe that price can head lower to key support resistance before begin trading sideways or reversal. We anticipate the potential sideway ceiling to be at 56.8 region where we will also set our initial Take Profit at.
Long opportunity: Reversal confirmation at 55.13 support region towards 56.81 as Take Profit - 1 level.
Cheers to all our member who managed to pack some profits this trading week.
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