Updated: Oct 8
Q3 2023 ended with risk off sentiment, supported by seasonality. Equities were depressed, while the United States Dollar / treasury yield and crude oil prices ended higher. Based on the UMich survey, consumer sentiment remains optimistic on the economy. FEDs remains in a constant battle with inflation and any result which is not the soft landing and fuel more risk off activities.
Next week schedule will be heavy on the labor market and unemployment which the FEDs mentioned will be a huge factor in considering further rate hike.
Upcoming Economic Release:
The S&P500 break below the key support region at 4370 region and is trading below the 4hour period - 50 exponential moving average (EMA). Equities bullish bias is now no more as it entered a neutral level. Bullish bias can only be reconsidered if price is to trade back above the 4370 resistance region.
Dollar Index (DXY)
The United States Dollar Index continued its ascend, looking to trade towards the 107.0 region. The Dollar is still respecting the 4 hour - 50 period exponential moving average (EMA). Only when price begin to trade below the moving average will the index goes to neutral level.
Gold closed everyday for the previous trading week and can be seen as extended. However, price is now bearish as it trades below the the 200 days moving average. With price trading in range, price can potentially trades towards the low of the range.
Trade Analysis / Setups
GBP/JPY (Analysis 40 - 1)
Analysis: Short term trend bearish but price began to tilt towards the upside as it trades above the 4hour - 50 period exponential moving average (EMA). Long position can be considered when price trades above the 182.787 region.
Long opportunity: Break and retest confirmation at 182.787 region towards 184.472 as Take Profit - 1 level.
Gold (Analysis 40 - 2)
Analysis: As mentioned earlier, price can seen as extended and can potentially begin to trades in consolidation or retracement.
Long opportunity: Long at market reopening as High Risk trade towards 1874.27 as Take Profit - 1 level.
2023 Market Order Signal Accuracy
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